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Can India be Modi-fied?

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India is preparing for a general election within a striking distance away and the stage is all set for a gigantic political fight between the BJP’s presumed Prime Minister Candidate, Narendra Modi and the rest of the other political parties. While Modi’s critics would want to believe that Gujarat CM is not popular outside of Gujarat, the fact remains different from this. While Modi is not only popular all over the country but also is considered as the only hope, the only question that arises in one’s mind is “Is it Narendra Modi all the way?”

While the oppositions are finding it quite impossible to stop Modi’s popularity and charm, there are a few hurdles which Modi would have to clear even before he can reach Delhi to be crowned as the Prime Minister. Some of them include his “communal image”, “opposition within the party and alliance” and “presence of the political party he represents, BJP, across the length and breadth of the country”.

Overwhelming support by minority community not only in Gujarat, but also from various other parts of the country is now a new head ache for the self declared secular political parties of India. Minorities openly expressing their support to Modi, out of out victory in the recently concluded Salaya municipal elections, where 90% of the population belongs to the Muslim community and Muslims from all over the nation now appreciating the development politics Modi has proved are some of the many reasons why the opposition parties are now worried seeing their well guarded “vote banks” break away.

With BJP deciding to compete in more number of LokSabha seats as compared to the last general elections, BJP’s presence can only widen across the country, which should be yet another reason for major oppositions to worry about. With JD(U), an 17 year old ally of NDA from Bihar breaking away after Modi’s elevation within the party, BJP is now compelled to compete from all the 40 LS seats in Bihar and with Modi’s popularity ramping up the case in Bihar, it can only get better for Modi in the Hindi heart land of India. While the opposition within the party and allies are all falling in place slowly yet steadily, is it to be believed that it is a cake walk for Narendra Modi?

Considering Modi’s fame and the chances of having this fame being converted to the tangible votes all across the country, one can be convinced that there is only man who can stop Modi in the Hindi heartland, and that is Modi himself. The Hindi Heart land of India (13 states and 2 Union Territories) constitutes close to 241 seats. This for certain is Modi’s battle field to win. With no BJP wave & Modi charm, BJP has managed close to 100 seats out of 241 seats and with a strong Modi wave in the country & anti incumbency factor for the present UPA government in the center, Modi fans can hope to reach 150-170 mark from the Hindi Heart land alone. The point that has to be noted is, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Odisha, North East and South Indian states have not been considered in this tally. With Amith Shah, Modi’s trusted aid now working on Uttar Pradesh, BJP’s tally of 10 seats in 2009 can reach any where between 30-40 seats. If this calculation is to be believed, with out any huge seat tally from South India, Modi’s BJP can reach 180+. The key to this would be how many additional seats BJP can win in Hindi Heartland, Uttar Pradesh and for huger numbers, South India, where BJP’s presence is very weak.

Elaborating on South Indian states, if BJP can hope winning some seats, it certainly is in Karnataka, where they had managed 19 seats in 2009 LS elections. However, after their mass leader B.S.Yeddyurappa left the party, things have changed. Recent Assembly elections where BJP was pushed to third highest party & the By-poll elections in Bangalore rural and Mandya, where Congress managed huge victory shows the strong presence Congress has in the state. However, if BSY rejoins BJP and if Modi is declared as the Prime Minister candidate before the elections, things can look better for BJP. Double digit in Karnataka for BJP can ensure 200+ and with Jayalalitha, who is expected to sweep Tamil Nadu supporting BJP, BJP’s South Indian absence might be hidden to a certain extent. BJP is also expected to win 3 seats in Andhra and possibly 1 in Kerala, which can only be added benefit for the party in South India.

Modi is certainly the talk of the nation. Having had covered the Hindi Heartland, the chances of Modi being crowned as the Prime Minister now depends on how many seats BJP wins in Uttar Pradesh and Karnataka. With any where close to 50 seats from these two states combined, Modi certainly is making it all the way to Delhi, which many of the Indians hope to see. Considering the calculations, it is Modi all the way if people of UP & Karnataka decide to see Modi as the Next Prime Minister of India. End of it all, would it be safe to say its “Natak in these Pradesh that will decide the Nayak for India”?

Vasanth Kini

vasanthkini@gmail.com

Disclaimer:  The views expressed here are solely those of the author in his private capacity and do not in any way represent the views of NaMo Brigade.